Bupa will be scrambling like mad to be ready to service the ADF....

Bupa will be scrambling like mad to be ready to service the ADF. They (ADF) have taken an enormous risk changing providers & have done so ineptly IMO.

KKT have built up considerable IP in their functions/processes & are capable of delivering the services efficiently at a national scale. No other providers (baring APM obviously) are capable of this.

My rationale is that Bupa will welcome these providers (KKT & APM) servicing the 'non-core' (~5%) component of the contract, essentially taking it off their hands. This would allow Bupa to focus all attention on being able to deliver on the core (~95%) of the contract, which in itself will seemingly be a struggle.

These opinions are supported by people I know who operate in the industry (I emphasise opinions) - I personally find insights from those 'on the ground' to be quite valuable. I also believe this type of scenario makes the most commercial sense & therefore, on balance I view a contract with Bupa as being reasonably probable.

I will however also note that I do not extrapolate the long term success of this business on this single contract, and think the market is totally irrational for being so intensely short-term
focused, in this instance.