And looking at everything only positively, in simple words this is what 2018 could have in store for us (you can apply the inverse to see the negative possibilities if you like):
- Offtake terms materially improving payables and therefore NPV (catalyst)
- Financing project Stage 1, proving self-reliance (catalyst)
- Greenfield exploration success at large scale targets of Kasangasi, Mamba (catalyst)
- Followup exploration success at small scale targets of KSW / Monwezi 2 & 7 / Kambudji (following up on 19m at 0.9% cobalt for example) (catalyst)
- Which will lead to resource definition at Monwezi 2, 7, KSW and Kambudji (giving us an idea of what they can add to the mine plan). Maybe something for the wet season.
- After this we should be approaching or exceeding the magic 1 million tonnes of high grade copper equivalent metal inventory, which if you take the cash cost from Stage 1 DFS as a guide, will be very high profit margin metal
- Positive leach testwork results and product specifications for cobalt hydroxide (important de-risk)
- PFS for Stage 2 SXEW (pre inclusion of satellite deposits)
- Property acquisitions
- Proposal from Huayou to try and both secure the cobalt output and bring the production forward (catalyst)
- Failing that a takeover bid (if they fail to make either of these moves I wonder why they invested) (catalyst)
Background:
- Further growth in Cobalt prices led by demand / shortages, Gecamines re-negotiating JV's on circa 50% of congolese output and potential for things like duties on refined cobalt exports from China in a trade war. (catalyst)
- Further growth in Copper prices as operations like Grasberg struggle, wage/union negotiations at the worlds biggest copper producers in South America (Escondida etc), Oyu Tolgoi navigates tax disputes with Mongolia and generally the market starts to understand copper miners have a pathetic project pipeline to replace the older big pillars of production. (catalyst)
- Last but not least mining code discussions between Randgold / Chinese / Glencore and DRC govt, which, we shouldn't hold our breath delivering anything but it can't get any worse than the recently adopted law. (annoying this has to happen during our year).
Call it rose coloured glasses but that's how I see it, tell me if my little ramp piece is missing any detail.
NZC Price at posting:
35.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
