Couple of points I picked up from meeting management yesterday.
1 - Offtake is not been given away in a rush as the market is getting hotter not colder. The final offtake terms will have a material effect on NPV (payable % of metal). Given the state of the market, its reasonable to expect the terms will be better and move it up.
2 - US$50m buys us a 1mpta concentrator and that funds a US$220m 1.1mtpa SXEW + cobalt hydroxide circuit, AND returns US$340m in discounted cashflow (after capital costs). I'm not sure I've seen a return on investment like this from other mining projects on ASX/TSX/LSE, at least not for a US$70m capped company.
3 - The risk on a DMS plant execution is minimal, its a very small footprint and simple piece of equipment. We also have very high grades to give us margin of error. Both management and Tembo are confident they can pull this stage off.
4 - Once we have a central processing hub established we will be able to either extend life of mine or expand throughput with satellite ore bodies (of which we will have more than a few), as both the DMS and SXEW are modular in design. This is why we continue with exploration, the vision is to create a copper/cobalt producer of scale. I will post an update on exploration program soon.
5 - Given the vision above, further property acquisitions are not out of the question.
6 - Under the 14 year staged approach the production profile is heavier on copper in the first half and cobalt in the second half (think someone asked about this), this is the highest return option for us after considering capital costs and risk. If someone (Huayou?) would like to bring stronger cobalt output much earlier (non staged approach), they will need to offer us a deal that exceeds the return on the option we have chosen and matches the risk (very difficult or - read that as - pricey for Huayou)
7 - We are proceeding under the basis of what is best for shareholders, and not seeking an easy way out. The idea is to maximise. They pointed to the FEED contract award and site works as proof they are moving ahead.
8 - Financing will be a key inflection point for the company and Mark is confident he will execute on favourable terms (he has done much much much bigger financings, as has our chairman tom). Once we are financed for the plan above to begin, I think we should start to see market ascribing more of the future value in present day.
NZC Price at posting:
35.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held