In my opinion there are a few key differences of why ARL bombed...

In my opinion there are a few key differences of why ARL bombed on that assumption and why I don't think NZC will.

1. ARL only achieved an IRR of 25% using $90k/t Co price. That doesn't give them much wiggle room. NZC have a 76% IRR at $81k/t. i.e they have a lot of wiggle room.

2. ARL are using that pricing assumption over a 25 year LOM starting in 2023. i.e that is pie in the sky stuff. NZC are using their pricing assumption over an 8 year period starting in 2019. i.e they will be finished their projection period 4 years into ARL's 25 year LOM. Hardly as bold a call for prices to stay elevated to 2026 as it is for them to stay elevated to 2047.