MML 2.41% 85.0¢ medusa mining limited

Ann: June 2016 Quarterly Report-MML.AX, page-5

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  1. 92 Posts.
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    The positive from this quarterly is that it delivers what was promised. Nothing more but also nothing less. The report tells us what they are doing and what we can expect in the FY16/17. A more or less flat production and a AISC which will be slightly higher than the FY15/16. They are working hard on the CO-O mine to get the LOM at least sustainable. The drilling supports the rule in a narrow vein mine that the LOM is not that high but it will be stable for a much longer period than the LOM. So all in all nothing to get exited about but also nothing to get worried about. Good to read that they got the certification on june the 23rd. It is telling me that the new CEO has started to rebuilt confidence in MML and that the shareholders can "read" in the messages from the CEO what is to be expected. If the Philippine government is not acting hostile then we are in for some better years with increasing production and decreasing AISC. This will help the free cash-flow (depending on the POG of course). When I fill in my already mentioned framework I see the following in two years time: production 130.000/140.000; AISC U$ 875/900 and a POG the current price of U$ 1.330 (I think it will be higher, but I want to be conservative). This will generate free cash-flow of around U$ 440,-., per OZ giving a total free cash-flow of U$ 59,4 mln or almost A$ 80 mln. Per share this means 80/210 = A$ 0,38. With a free cash flow PE of 7 to 7,5 this means a " calculated" value of MML of 7,25 x 0,38 = A$ 2,75. A lot of potential for MML. One last remarkt: we finally see the cash/gold quote go up from U$ 16,8 to U$ 22 mln. Not bad after all the spending on the projects.
 
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