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The previous RCF debt deal (May 2018) was a rushed one. A Plan B...

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wombat777

3,387 Posts.

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18/03/19

19:33

Post #: 37802147
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Originally posted by Blythefan ↑

Yeah, a rising tide lifts all boats and DF and JS hauled the crippled scow AGO as far out onto the mud flats as possible so the rising tide would lift it as high as it could.

Saying your management expertise is down, solely, to a rise in commodity prices is hardly a great endorsement.

I mean, not to put too fine a point on it, but AGO came out in 2011-12 and revised their cost of production up for the previous year. Which means they were in effect, how shall I delicately saying this...concealing the true cost. No, they had misapprehended their true costs. Misstated them. Something had been missed. Errors crept in. Mistakes were made.

Or they went into production without even a scoping study. Great discipline.

Or they got into production with no reserves. And didn't apparently count transport in their costs. Because it wasn't in their press, but it was hidden in their quarterlies.

I mean, yeah, rising tides and all that, but the early AGO was ALL about the tide and it wasn't about the boat. Then it was about shoving ore out the door and for one year - one - they made a handy profit. Right at the top of the market. Then promptly borrowed $300M+ to go buy their competitors, right at the top of the market. Which did so well for them, because the creditors got AGO.

AGO got through its financial difficulties by shoving the project cost risks onto its haulage contractor, who got boat loads of shares in lieu of money Then they lost the lot as AGO nearly went down the tubes. This nearly scuttled AGO because their haulage contractor nearly went bankrupt; no haulage, no mine, nada. Flanagan stepped aside before the last refinancing, but the note holders still got nearly everything.

So, yeah, it is worth asking if there's a bit of magic about DF & JS, or whether it's handkerchiefs and rabbits out of the hat kind of stuff. You have to ask what the key operational achievements of Atlas under JS really were. Was it driving costs down by forcing risks onto contractors? Was it by miss-stating costs so you seemed to be making iron at $55/t when it was really $80? Was it putting out production forecasts out to 5 years which had no basis in Resources or Reserves? Or was it seeing your shares go for a massive tear, making the insiders rich, who then bailed out for profit and who cares about the mine itself? Corporately, up until 2011, yeah, AGO was a miracle.

Make no mistake, AGO got away with stuff in 2005-2012 that...Just. Does. Not. Fly. Under JORC 2012 and under the new ASIC Guidance Notes on forward looking statements. There is no "ramping up to 12 Mtpa in 5 years" unless it's in a scoping study and the Resources are there, maybe even Reserves.

So, shareholders have to ask (and clearly have complained) about why Mr Flanagan got $400K p.a.. Now his old chum gets it and he trims his sails and tightens his belt and moves sideways into executive chairman. Great for JS and DF's clearly not short a few pennies thanks to BAT.

But the mine is not funded. The last funding I recall was 60% debt, 40% equity. Which is a big meh vote from banks. Wonder why, maybe they remember the singes from the Pilbara? Dunno. But they need to fund the mine via equity (not at this price) or debt, and just building bits and pieces before getting your funding sorted is fairly risky.

So, yeah, altogether, there's enough history here to make at least me cautious about believing that any cachet attaches to the personalities here. JORC 2012 and the ASX / ASIC and the discipline which has had to be forced upon Battery Minerals by the crack down upon forward looking statements is about all I can see in the way of improvement between AGO and BAT. Maybe these guys are able to float boats when the commodity isn't hot, but if that's so it's the wrong time to tell. If Flanno can get a low grade zinc mine off the ground right now I would believe the hype. Getting a FOTM commodity off the ground into boom prices, not so amaze.

DYOR.

Expand

The previous RCF debt deal (May 2018) was a rushed one. A Plan B so to speak. The strategy of partly funding Montepuez from 10c unlisted options out of the November 2017 placement failed ( the Dow corrected in February 2018, whereas they were expecting an announcement of 4 x Binding Offtakes in quick succession would drive those 10c unlisted options into the money ). I think it's highly likely this was a bad idea generated by Hartleys / Morgans in 2017 and as it turned out a bad decision by the board at the time to even consider such a risky strategy ( although the graphite price slump in 2017 might have caused them to try such an innovative approach ). I don't think they even approached banks. I think their planned strategy was to raise about $33M from those unquoted oppies and the balance with a debt provider such as RCF.

When this strategy failed, the problem for them was that in early 2018 they didn't have enough time to properly talk to banks. It didn't come done to the deal being 'meh' from the perspective of banks ... I don't think they spoke to any. They didn't have time to go through the exhaustive process of debt funding by banks.

JORC 2012 has been in place for some time now and the whole industry has generally cleaned up their act, although there are still horror stories I don't think BAT will be one of them. At least from a resource knowledge perspective. They have done significantly finer-grained drilling than both SYR and BSM have done ( and I think this is part of their problems ). BSM also didn't seem to produce any from of feasibility study for their mine refurbishment.

BAT have done full grade-control drilling at Montepuez on a 12.5m x 50m grid. In support of offtakes they also did a bulk sample program. They should have a pretty good knowledge of what is in the ground and where. They also brought in Ivy Chen to help ensure adequate rigour in their reporting to the market.

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190205/pdf/442cw5tcfv6bw9.pdf

Last edited by wombat777: 18/03/19

BAT Price at posting: 2.9¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
9 Upvote

4 Great analysis

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