I find it bewildering at the odds off success people throw about...

I find it bewildering at the odds off success people throw about regarding this project. Some say 5% others say 50% and a heap in the middle. It's impossible to calculate something like that. Although COS isn't 100% there is nothing wrong with the fundamentals. Last year we had had a skinned over Klebb flowing at about 330 odd mcfd. Halliburton successfully fracked the coals in 7 places, hopefully we get at least 7 times the flow rate (that is my only hope). 
Water pump rates reached 1100 bpd indicating good porosity. We just had a huge gas spike at 225 psi telling us what the gas desorption pressure we need to be around. 
Yea we have a heap of sand in the bore now but what put it there, gas flowing, that's what we wanted to see (minus the sand).I hope it can be cleared out as if this can't be then and only then is it a definite duster. Until that happens the chance of success or failure is no different from 6 months ago when we successfully intersected the vertical well and fracked, Nothing else has changed. 
The risk here has always been in the engineering and if gas will flow at these depths. We have seen both of these happen now.
I know i'll be called a dreamer and wishful thinker but apart from the blockage, someone tell me why they think success rate is now lower or what has changed in the entire ideology of this project.