I am no longer an rgs holder, so my thinking may be worth even less.
I suspect your time frames are about right. Hopefully rgs mgmt is now more conservative with "tantalizing phrase sets" and "loaded adjectives". rgs used those loosely regarding the Japan deal for over a year. Repeatedly built then disappointed quarterly expectations of deal delivery. That damaged investor confidence in their statements, especially those phrases IMO. SP bottomed @ 7c.
rgs also built expectations of "re-rate catalysts" via Edison "analyst reports". The company did successfully deliver the catalysts but no re-rates occurred. That may have added to some reluctance to invest in rgs until a solid revenue generating commercial partnership is confirmed.
I am unsure about rgs delivery statements leading up to the Phase I report. But I believe it was delivered on time(?) - a positive sign. And rgs now have those results to attract "potential licensees of Progenza rights for disease specific indications in Japan". If rgs deliver the licensing agreements in the "near term" (3-6 mos) they may "re-rate". The license terms re income would be important. I don't think undefined "milestones" or any revenue contingent on Phase II completion (years off) would re-rate. But a steady licensing revenue stream with perhaps an up-front payment might.
As a non-holder I've changed my sentiment from sell to hold. A solid revenue generating licensing agreement and the re-rate or "break" may come. If rgs puts out "tantalizing phrase sets" and "loaded adjectives" again but fails to deliver near term, it could re-rate negatively. Or holders could sit w/ 14c for quite a long time.
An on time positive Phase I is encouraging. It changes my guess they will deliver a licensing agreement within 6 mos from 20% to 50%.
Still skeptical about rgs "tantalizing phrase sets" and "loaded adjectives". But a bit less so.
GLTAH
RGS Price at posting:
13.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Not Held
