I never stated that you said they won't get the licence. You...

I never stated that you said they won't get the licence. You said there is a low chance they will get the licence. That's the very definition of something being high risk = low chance of success.

You can't have it both ways. You are just trying to cover all bases. If it all falls apart you can say "oh well, it was always a high risk speccie. That's just the name of the game"

Or if all goes as you want it to then you can say "I always said it was pretty much guaranteed AVQ would succeed"