IQE 0.00% 3.0¢ intueri education group limited

I don't know about fairly valued. I re-calculated the above...

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  1. 1,701 Posts.
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    I don't know about fairly valued. I re-calculated the above based on 5.5% interest rate and 27m EBITA, and I get 15.7m NPATA (in AUD), meaning it's trading at 8.6* earnings at the lower end of guidance.
    There is the chance guidance is lowered again, but I don't see it happening. The announcement sounded like they found issues in Quantum and needed to spend more to fix it.

    That said, if you remove all acquisitions from the picture, you get (roughly) a flat EBITA figure... meaning the company did not grow for 1 year (my guess would be revenues grew in most units, but expenses are up).

    The issue at the moment seems to be trust with management, which is understandable given the two guidance changes (FY14 and 1H FY15) and the continuing saga with NZSCDT investigations. Moving those short-term problems aside, I can't see how this company won't grow in the longer term, for the following reason:
    - They have about 40-50% of the domestic PTE (govt funded) market (from memory). For another player to come in and do this, they need to jump through regulatory hoops and spend big on marketing, course materials, etc. (all the things that Intueri expenses rather than capitalising). I'd suggest following a Greenwald-like asset valuation and see what you come up with.
    - Their schools are already accredited with the relevant NZ authorities, which in turn gives them government funding (another competitive advantage against a new entrant). Try marketing to students without their courses being subsidised by the government.
    - They have economies of scale that smaller schools do not have. A single division for procurement, finance, HR, etc. reduces costs substantially.

    Given the above, I don't see how they won't grow with the market. I can only see the current issues as temporary.
    Last edited by Klogg: Changed wording in two places 07/08/15
 
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