Autosime , Autosime , All good points . I get frustrated when I...

Autosime ,

Autosime ,

All good points .

I get frustrated when I hear the term "shale oil" bandied around . It is just so mainstream and wrong because the formations they extract light tight oil from within the Eagleford and Bakken are not true shales , they are hybrid plays .

No disagreement that these tight oil plays will be on a smaller scale and less attractive to investors .

Over the past decade only North America and Opec have increased production . Production in the rest of the world has declined .

Now , everybody is pumping as hard as they can yet prices have not dropped below $40 whereas in previous crisis it dropped far lower in real terms . This suggests we have moved higher up the price-supply curve since the last crisis .

The N.A. light tight oilers are pretty much exclusively drilling out their best assets at the bottom of the market - sweet spots and even infill drilling because they can't afford to risk dry holes . They are using up their geological contingencies so they won't be available to future downturns .

Increases in supply from Iran and Kurdistan should be offset by decline in conventional production . The world used 1 million barrels per day more in 2015 than in 2014 and is set to use more in 2016 .

Do people subscribe to the opinion that there must be a Goldilocks price which Opec are happy to sell at and which does not cause over-investment in non-Opec countries ?

If so , what are we talking $80 for the next 5 years ?