A bit off topic but I've been talking about the inherent risks...

A bit off topic but I've been talking about the inherent risks in the middle east and the shale patch credit bubble not being factored into the oil futures market. Well shale oil is just one big Glencore debt bubble which will pop when the hedging, debt refinancing and development capital dries up for good but Saudi Arabia is an interesting pressure cooker as well.

I've stumbled across an article written about a letter that has been circulated by a senior member of the Saudi royal family warning about the potential fall of the state. I don't know how authentic the article is but it is very interesting and explains Saudi Arabia's involvement in Yemen, Iraq and Syria and the threats posed by the Houthis in Yemen and elements of Islamic State (IS) within the country itself. I'm not saying it is very likely but the idea of the disintegration of the state of Saudi Arabia throws up some interesting thoughts as to what would happen to the oil price in this situation. Apart from the foreign policy and wars that the kingdom is engaged in, the political strains within the kingdom are also due to the fiscal drain on its finances caused by the low oil price. It really does appear to be a race of who can stop the large cracks appearing first, the US shale oil patch or the Saudi Royal family. Either way something has got to  give and these investments we have in the CB should turn around with a bang IMO.

Eshmun

Interesting read if you have the time.

"A senior member of Saudi Arabia’s royal family has circulated a letter expressing fear that the monarchy may collapse unless the king is urgently replaced and the position of deputy crown prince scrapped, Middle East Eye can reveal.On 4 September, a grandson of the late King Abdulaziz Ibn Saud wrote a four-page letter calling on the royal family to hold an emergency meeting to address concerns that the House of Saud may be losing its grip on power.“We [have] got closer and closer to the fall of the state and the loss of power,” the letter read.“We appeal to all the sons of King Abdulaziz – from the eldest Prince Bandar to the youngest Prince Muqrin – to summon an emergency meeting with all the family to discuss the situation and do everything that is need to save the country.”The letter was signed “a descendant of the King Abdulaziz of the House of Saud”. MEE spoke to the letter’s author, who confirmed he is a grandson of Abdulaziz, but asked not to be named for fear of negative repercussions.The document has been carefully circulated among princes, using secure means of mobile communication, because royal family members are under surveillance by those in power, the letter’s author said." - See more at: http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/s...apse-1612130905#sthash.UA8QTX1t.XPI6vx79.dpuf