Examining the financials, it's simple to see why the smart money hasn't piled into this stock yet. NPAT remains negative; albeit reduced to an estimated 2.599 million loss at FY17. On a positive note, underlying EBITDA should turn positive this year.
I thought that the debt was more than $3 million. It sits at $8.1 million (slide 6), which is relatively significant (~36%) compared to the EV. I wouldn't want this number to go any higher. Paying back about $1.8-2 mil per year with future free cash flow. That's pretty clean.
That said, reviewing the current numbers, it's clear that the balance sheet is stressed for now and profitability is mediocre. Nothing to make investors rush to step up to the plate and go, wow.
That's based on the current performance, by the way. Of course, we are invested for the growth proposition...
EBITDA projected to grow by 10x during the next financial year! If that ACTUALLY happens, forget about these prices. It's showing that core costs represent around 75% of revenue, which is pretty high. But on the current EBITDA/EV, it would value the company at about 4x. That's dirt cheap for a company about to expand into international markets.
The market (by the looks of it) is purely valuing STL as an ATM business. If you look at slide 15, the other competitors are mainly in the EFTPOS space and have signficantly higher market caps. That signals that EFTPOS is the future and should offer the cream on the cake. Todd very transparent and looks like he will roll out EFTPOS business over the next 6-12 months to 45,000 clients. Mint Payments, our closest competitor on a revenue basis, has double the market cap and less than 10,000 merchants in Australia. Obviously, the market valuing the Asian rollout growth potential.
Tyro payments is a bit out of our league at the moment, it has a banking license which I think the market values more. That said, comparing the EBITDA between Tyro and STL, we should generate significantly more off a smaller revenue base during FY18. Their net assets are six times bigger. Tyro focused on EFTPOS.
This preso has very little info on the EFPOS growth potential, IMO. Looking at slides 10/11, the growth potential is focused on ATM growth. Slides 15, 16 and 17 indicate where the company is going with its EFTPOS business in the short term.
My view: STL should be worth more than MNW purely on a financial statement analysis basis. I think that the roll out of the EFTPOS machines will attract significant capital into this stock. That's the next big milestone IMO.
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