kevin103, I see Laz has provided the info you might need. My...

kevin103,

I see Laz has provided the info you might need.

My simplicitic view is calculated as,

P1. A reservoir rock where the petroleum can accumulate.

P2. A trap so that petroleum is retained in a reservoir.

P3. A source rock containing organic material, which can convert to petroleum at sufficient
temperature and pressure.

P4. A migration route that allows the petroleum to move from source to reservoir rock.
The expression for the chance of geological success is then:

Pg = P1 ∗P2 ∗P3 ∗P4.

So if you take a rough average of 70% sucess across the 4 parameters, you get,

Essentially Pg(~25%)=70%x70%x70%x70%

Of course we don't know the details and how the individual factors are calculated, they are also open to expert biase and influence.



From the above graph the 25-30% GoS is right in the sweet spot for potential success. Equally they could miss by this much.

From all the 88e RNS',


"The chance of discovery is considered moderate as the prospective resources are near developed and undeveloped reserves and in a proven oil and gas producing province. There is a risk that exploration will not result in sufficient
volumes of oil and/or gas for a commercial development (LR 5.35.3). (xii) Prospective resources are un-risked and have not been adjusted for an associated chance of discovery and a chance of development (LR 5.35.4)."

So what they are saying is "let's drill it and find out what we have, as all around us they have found oil"

Cheers happy Saturday