The revenue stream 'case study' is very ambitious if you ask me. For their renter revenue, they have the estimated market size of 1 million renters every month.
This seems a high anticipated level of rental churn, (12 million renters per year) given their entire market in the previous slide is 7 million renters in Australia. Not withstanding the fact that I think the 7 million Australian renters is a bit of a stretch, yes its backed up by ABS data - but my recollection is this includes couples, children etc. So there will be often many 'renters' in one rental property, making the number of transactions only a proportion of this figure.
Expanding the 7 million renters, into 12 million renter transactions per year they suggest taking 10% of this market (1.2 million renters for the year) and taking $20 from each in revenue.
Even if these - in my opinion - rather ambitious figures were to play out, the $24 million in revenue is just that.. revenue, its not profit. I am not sure of the margins on all their products however rent-check is a resold veda service and I would expect not more than a few dollars for each $35 received, RentBond might be a tad more lucrative, and at best RentConnect might well provide a trail.
Even assuming a generous 30% margin for this revenue and the optimistic proposition that RNT can claim 1.2 million renter transactions which would be an impressive achievement, net cash of $8 million after all the risk needed to keep the lights on, keep getting new customers and maybe retain some profits is just to risky for me.
The network effect is one thing and its not to be dismissed, but its a hard road to become a dominant player where this kicks in.
I note renter revenue in this slide is hypothesised at $24m, equal largest source as agent revenue. I'm not even going to bother crunching the numbers for agents paying them.. suffice to say, ill believe it if/when I see it.
Good luck holders, at 15c and $8 million cash I think for the short term the share price will possibly stabilise around these levels, definitely lower downside risk now. To see a rise from here I think will need an aquirer and/or bidding war - certainly possible but far from guaranteed.
RNT Price at posting:
15.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
