I think people are panicking about the RC repercussions while...

I think people are panicking about the RC repercussions while the Govt waves its big stick at IFL... (will it do it to the Banks in an election year I think not.)

Intelli Invest Key Points

Original investment case broken

May still be some value

Downgrading to Sell ...

... but a dissenting view to be published shortly

II put in a BUY in 2014?

Griffiths reiterated what IOOF had said on Friday, that ‘the allegations made by APRA are misconceived and will be vigorously defended’. The legal detail of the allegations is complex and we haven’t yet heard IOOF’s side of the story. But, for shareholders at least, it hardly matters.The simple fact is that, like customers, policemen and deaf grandparents, the regulator is always right. If you want to argue the toss, then fine – but don’t push it too far. APRA has some powerful weapons, and if it chooses to use them your business will suffer grievously, whatever the rights and wrongs.

Alot of people would be happy the OnePath deal falls over so IFL gets the $800mil back. ANZ are keen to follow through with the deal. Win Win for IFL in my book.

Our best guess is that we’ll see some small net outflows during the period of uncertainty, but nothing to cause major damage to either the advice or the platform businesses. Who else is untarnished? Stick with the Company giving you the best returns anway?

Then there’s the threat of shareholder class actions, with various lawyers happy to let the media know that they’re sizing up cases. This threat can’t be removed by a management exodus, although it could be made worse by them remaining. This will surely focus the minds of the independent directors.

Source: https://www.intelligentinvestor.com.au/closing-the-door-on-ioof-1900686