You sure you went back 8 years and couldn't find an NPAT higher...

You sure you went back 8 years and couldn't find an NPAT higher than $3m? My 2011 NPAT was $33.6m (and FY10 was $18.2m). Probably also worth noting that they achieved those figures in their old Malaga plant, which has roughly half the capacity of their Henderson plant (which was commissioned in FY12).

At any rate, i'd suggest cash flow is probably the more appropriate thing to look at, given the value of a company is the expected future cash flows generated into perpetuity discounted back. MCE's cash flow and profitability have been significantly misaligned over the last 5 years as: 1) they've taken impairments along the way, 2) the P&L depreciation charge with respect to the Henderson plant significantly exceeds what they're spending in cash capex.

I think calling MCE 'speculation' is fair as it's ultimately exposed to the oil capex cycle coming back (and guessing where the oil capex cycle is going is speculation), but it's wrong to suggest this business can't generate very significant free cash flow relative to its current ~$43m EV.