I've reworked my estimates done a couple of months ago before...

I've reworked my estimates done a couple of months ago before 1Hfy18 results. Overall i've increased them slightly based on 1H results. Note BP refers to Bell Potter.

Aggregated Rev: FY18 4755m
Underlying EBIT: FY18 277m
Underlying NPAT: FY18 159m (BP 183m)
Underlying EPS: FY18 58c (BP 68c)
Dividend: FY18 25c unfr (BP 29c)

The statutory NPAT will be considerably less due to change in tax regime in USA and along with methodology WOR use to calc underlying NPAT. i estimate it will come in around 65-75m range.

Using a SP of $15.40:
EV/ebit = 4975/277 = 18x which is v.high.
WOR don't use ebitda so i'll guesstimate at 4975/337 = 14.76x which is also v. high.

SP on fire today and currently 15.44-47 range! I've increased my short position to $13.72av.

Been holding these for ages and still reckon SP will return to CR price of $13. I keep coming back to fact that WOR has announced very few contracts and nothing on the scale seen in previous yrs. At 31/12/17 it had $2.4B order book for FY19 which equates to 6 mths work. The UK IS acquisition def brings in consistent MMO work and has been a good fit. But the main change has been to continual climb in oil price with Brent today hitting a 42 mth high. With 75% of wk coming from hydrocarbons its clearly good news for Worley.

Should i have exited when SP went under $14 a fortnight ago? With hindsight of course i should have esp with SP close to $15.50 I'd love to have a clean slate. Let's see what happens. World is a fragile place and just about anything is possible.