Ann: Investor Day 2017 presentation, page-129

"Telling DSD the market is forward looking indicates you have missed key points completely.His whole primise is that into the future WOR which is centred very lopsidely on new oil developments and more particularly offshore is in trouble unless it diversifies. extremely quickly."

@charl,

I have missed key points completely?

Like the following, do you mean?

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/i-...3238109/page-10?post_id=22771778#.WpoAB-huaUk


So, even with your warnings about:

"Credit Crunch,
low oil prices,
Class action,
Too many risks facing this company"

....the company has in the interim generated $160m in Free Cash Flow (OCF less Investment in PP&E and Intangibles), its profits have increased by 37%, and Net Debt-to-EBITDA has fallen from 3.3x to 2.4x over the past 12 months. [*]

Oh, and the share price is today 80% higher (even after the 10% pull-back over the past week) than when you and @DSD were fixated on the prevailing circumstances as you perceived them 12 months ago.

That's the forward-looking market in action.


[*] And to preempt, no the balance sheet repair is not due to the capital raising conducted in the DH2017, because while they raised $316m, they spent $354m on a major acquisition


Unless WOR can find a way to enter tight oil or renewables it is probably in for a shock after FY 2020 when lack of income finds them out.I work on earnings of 50c per share 2018 (PE plus or minus 30) 75 for each of FY 19 and FY 20 and then a rapid decline as its lack of income tells.THIS IS MY OPTOMISTIC SCENARIO

I've yet to meet anyone - including full-time investment professionals - who are able to accurately forecast 6- or 12 months out on a sustainable basis, let alone more than 3 years out, which is what you are doing.

So, the very best of luck with that.


PS. One thing about your post that does confuse me a bit: you say that WOR are due for a shock after FY2020 when a lack of income finds them out. And yet in the very next breath your opinion is that WOR's "expertise in fundamental analysis to figure how they react to threats against conventional oil" is such that it might lead the company to be acquired by "the Arab part of OPEC".

So, which is it then:

WOR doesn't have the expertise to cope with a post-conventional oil world (which, apparently, will be upon the company post 2020)? Or it does, in fact, have such expertise, which could result in the company being acquired?