CB I wasn't suggesting there was evidence churn will increase....

CB I wasn't suggesting there was evidence churn will increase.

Just that LTV can fluctuate wildly on changes in churn, and churn can vary markedly on one off events and so can be a fickle indicator.

If next year there were low churn, say 3%, and no change in ACV or profit margin, LTV will have gone from $715m to $1787m. A billion dollar increase in LTV doesn't excite me that much until such time as a 3% churn can be shown as sustainable, but a static ACV concerns me a lot. The raw numbers without the context can be misleading.

Churn can be unusually low or unusually high in any given year for reasons that can be beyond the companies control. Churn events happen, and they are not necessarily something that can be predicted.

Eg change in Federal Government policy re solar panel rebates.

To that, as ACV grows churn will tend to be impacted less by one off events because individual contracts will be a smaller proportion of the ACV overall.