hi andrew, A gap down on huge volume is actually bearish unless...

hi andrew,

A gap down on huge volume is actually bearish unless it turns back up to fill the gap in the next few days.
next few days crucial.
I sold 1/3rd at 55 cents to take some money off the table.

Fundamentally, any more hits to EBITDA and I agree , we are looking at tight interest cover.
Interest cover ratio should be >1.5 to comfortably meet covenants.
assume 14% drop of operating cash flow = 26 *0.14 =22 (which is the drop in EBITDA forecasted)
10 mill borrowings to be paid, approx 6.5 million interest next year since reduction of debt. next years interest payment and 4.5 capex = 21. therefore, FCF of 1 mill and 7 mill in cash on books. So EBITDA/Interest ratio is > 1.5.
So precarious but then this is not selling at huge multiples either. EV/EBITDA is still very low.
Risky , but thats why the gains can be huge, if this washes over, or if they are able to compensate for the loss of earnings.
good luck