I dont expect either of your two scenarios to play out. I think the sp @ 60c represents value at ev/ebitda multiple of around 7.5 and i think catalysts for sp reversal are imminent (and well before the next fed election), including confirmation on refinancing (30th March), commissioning / operations of the new Bodangora wind farm (Aug) and sanctioning new projects (Flyers creek, Vic; 2018).
I dont expect either of your two scenarios to play out. I think...
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