Noticed the small trades as well. Someone has been accumulating...

Noticed the small trades as well. Someone has been accumulating the stock in the past three weeks (unusually high approx. 6.5% of the equity has traded in the three weeks since 9th Oct) and possibly they may be still looking for more and using small bot trades to keep price down?

On the bigger picture, the result yesterday was quite strong - on my figuring, $72.7m sales would equate to approx. $58m EBITDA and approx. $45m cash flow after interest. So if you ignore the current capex spend on the new 131MW development, suggests that net debt (including derivatives liability) has been chopped down from $475m to $430m in just three months.

Enterprise value at current share price is $696m share value + $430m net debt = $1,126m. With the strong 1st quarter, I estimate that underlying annualised EBITDA is probably tracking at about $150m to $155m which implies a (cheap) 7.3x EV to EBITDA. Past analysis has suggested that peer valuations range in the 9x to 11x range - 9x @ $150m = $1,350m or $920m for value of equity ($0.965 cps).

With debt amortisation from a prospective 2018 $150m EBITDA likely to chop 30th June 2018 net debt to about $370m, then $1,350 - $370 = $980m value of equity or $1.03cps. This obviously is before the EBITDA upside of the new 131MW development.

The above are all just some back of the envelopes / what ifs - as always, DYOR. However, my underlying conclusion is that there is a potential ~50% upside from these levels in the next 12 months as they move to a refi of debt and a balance between dividends and debt service.