"I think these guys are showing some inexperience" — I tend to agree there. It's pretty clear that we didn't realise until the study was completed that we wouldn't get our hands on the results until after the results were published.
I believe that the recent share price movement — spike up then rapid fall to previous — is a direct result of this change in understanding.
The spike up occurred when it was announced that the Carrick Institute study was completed. We all believed that top line results would be released within days. If the final results are in line with the preliminary results that emerged last year then a re-rate of the stock is almost certain.
However when it turned out that we would have a significant delay before the results would be announced the short termers who had taken positions for the re-rate had no reason to stay. I suspect we'll be stuck at this level for some time because:
1) Traders now realise that the critical news will be some time coming, and
2) It seems likely that the timing of the announcement will be known well in advance.
These factors together increase the chances of being able to successfully time the uptick (should it happen) for this stock, which in turn will encourage traders to make other plays while they wait.
NTI Price at posting:
20.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
