Hi Spec
For me personally, the biggest risk atm is dilution. They need capital and have had a hard time obtaining any large sums required to get this moving. This is evident in the last few CR where they had shortfall in raising. Perhaps now Zuma is out, this can change for the good and foreign capital can enter.
Also i suspect any major rally will be meet with a CR. All in all, this is a longer term bet on POG and if management can get this into production, a handsome x10 awaits for investors. Probably why directors hold 78% of the shares with T20.
As for SA risk, it is well and truly priced into the market mate. For what it is worth, reading about the new leadership, they are pro business and open to foreign capital.
Your friends (Sarcasm intended) called it the EM place to be. See article below.
Also looking at the ZAR/USD, under Zuma, who destroyed the country, the ZAR crashed, since he is out ZAR is on the way up and perhaps with investor confidence too. Too early to call though. Positive signs.
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https://www.sagoodnews.co.za/whats-goldman-sachs-saying-sa-now/
“South Africa will be the big emerging market story of 2018” – Goldman Sachs
By
Tom Head – 2018-01-22
Image Credits: Pixabay
Goldman Sachs are the world’s third-biggest investment bank. So they know a thing or two when it comes to picking out a country with massive ’emerging market’ potential. And right now, they’re championing South Africa.
Your eyes do not deceive you. As reported by
Fin24, Mzansi is now showing the signs of bouncing back from a bruising 2017, which saw everything from recessions to junk statuses take a firm grip on the country’s economy.
Why is South Africa the “big emerging market story”?
There’s no doubt that the ANC Elective Conference in December 2017 has had a huge influence on the Goldman Sachs decision. Cyril Ramaphosa has always been seen as the ‘business-friendly’ candidate for leadership. And in his first month as ANC President, he is getting things done.
The state capture inquiry and attempts to prosecute the Guptas have both been stepped up significantly. Ramaphosa has already shown plenty of hubris in declaring his exact intentions during his presidency. In fact, just the mere suggestion of Zuma leaving his role as Head of State soon has strengthened the rand.
Our currency’s durability has been something to marvel at. Trading at almost R15 to the dollar in October, Goldman Sachs envision that we will enter 2019 at R11.50 to the dollar instead.
How have Goldman Sachs decided on a successful South Africa?
With interest rates reportedly lowering, it seems like Cyril Ramaphosa is going to make good on
his promise of opening Mzansi up to investors. But South Africa, and certainly the new ANC regime, could benefit from Jacob Zuma’s ineptitude.
As discussed by Tim Cohen (Editor of Business Day), he says this country has a vast ‘catch up potential’. Essentially, the economy will grow because it has such a low bar set from the previous annum.
Dare to dream, folks. An endorsement from Goldman Sachs is something to take very seriously.
