For those fellow holders like myself who have been contemplating whether to participate in the CR @ 0.005 whilst the share price is @ 0.004 the following maybe useful.
I was wondering would I be better off just buying on market @0.004 rather than buy my allocation at 0.005?
My analysis is based on the following assumptions
1. If you buy on market you buy at 0.004 only
2. However you buy, you only buy your entitlement amount ie 1/10th of your holdings
3. The starting number of shares you have make no difference to the outcome
4. There is no time value factored into the options ie if heads are 0.012 oppies are worthless, if heads are 0.013 oppies are worth 0.001 and the price always follows this direct relationship.
5. No tax or personal circumstances are factored in
6. This is neither financial nor medical advice so please DYOR
So after crunching the numbers the following is the question I realised I have to ask myself.
"Do I believe that the heads will be worth more than 0.016 before the oppies expire?"The reason this is the question is because given the above assumptions hold true then this is the price that your portfolio is worth the same whether you bought at 0.004 on market or bought through the CR. If the share price goes above this then your portfolio is worth more if you bough through the CR.
This can be seen from the following examples, I just picked a million units as an example amount - NB it doesn't matter how many you hold the break even point is the same :
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Current Shares Held |
1000000 |
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Predicted future Price |
$ 0.016 |
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Buy on Mkt @0.004 |
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Buy through CR
Purchase same $ amount as CR |
125000 |
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Cost to buy in CR |
500
New total share holdings |
1125000 |
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New Share level |
1100000
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Options |
100000
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Value of holdings |
$ 18,000 |
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Value of holdings |
$ 18,000 |
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Current Shares Held |
1000000 |
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Predicted future Price |
$ 0.015 |
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Buy on Mkt @0.004 |
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Buy through CR
Purchase same $ amount as CR |
125000 |
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Cost to buy in CR |
500
New total share holdings |
1125000 |
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New Share level |
1100000
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Options |
100000
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Value of holdings |
$ 16,875 |
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Value of holdings |
$ 16,800 |
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Current Shares Held |
1000000 |
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Predicted future Price |
$ 0.017 |
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Buy on Mkt @0.004 |
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Buy through CR
Purchase same $ amount as CR |
125000 |
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Cost to buy in CR |
500
New total share holdings |
1125000 |
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New Share level |
1100000
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|
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Options |
100000
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Value of holdings |
$ 19,125 |
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Value of holdings |
$ 19,200 |
Based on this my answer to the question is yes I think it will go above 0.016 so for me the CR is the way to go. GLTAH.
(20min delay)
