eshmun, while I hold DLS and believe it to be a great company, I would not consider myself a 'defender'. Just a humble investor trying to pare back some serious losses made in other stocks.
If you have the time (which I currently don't), I and others have posted extensively on DLS fundamentals over the past 12-18 months. The posts look at the notes, cash position and growth options.
I will say that IMHO, DLS has the best suite of growth options in the Cooper currently. Now that being said, BPT & SXY have their own, but I feel they are still a way off and are purely gas. DLS is an Oiler, wet gas, conventional gas and Uncon all in one.
By the time the notes are due, DLS may simply pay them out and switch to a different sort of borrowing facility in which will not require them to pay it down at all. Of course many other options are available to them as well. They could just pay them out right now with the small debt facility they have, but with the AUD so low against the greenback, I think that very unwise.
From a simple value perspective, DLS has approx 29mmbo 2P, so if you value that at even just $15 a barrel (which I think is conservative, even in the current low POO environment), that alone covers their entire MC. Everything else is currently valued at zero.
Lastly regarding the field decline, it is totally natural, and will be offset once the other fields in PEL 91 come online later this year. They should be able to produce aprox 3mmbo for at least the next 3 years, although by year 3 some further successes would be needed to meet my estimate.
Oh, regarding the gas sales, pretty sure all of DLS current production is in contract with STO etc.
DLS Price at posting:
99.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held