Share
2,848 Posts.
lightbulb Created with Sketch. 415
clock Created with Sketch.
03/07/17
23:31
Share
Originally posted by Jimmy_C
↑
To be honest, i don't consider FY17's results to be particularly important as they don't properly reflect what's going on in the business - the FY17 results will show the full cost impact of the significant expansion undertaken since FY15 (i.e. the overhead/admin costs of the business have increased significantly will be fully reflected in this year's P&L), but the revenue side of the equation associated with the business expansion won't start coming through until FY18 given there's an average of 2+ years from case selection to settlement.
That said, one could guess FY17's profit reasonably easily under the following parameters:
- 11 cases were completed in FY17; 6 of those in 1H, and 5 in 2H. The 6 cases completed in 1H generated gross profit of $36.5m.
- The 5 cases in 2HFY17 appear to be: 13 Feb ($3.9m gross profit), 24 Feb ($1.5m GP), 31 March ($2.1m GP), 29 May ($1.4m), and today ($22.5m).
- FY17 gross profit should, therefore, be in the order of 36.5 + 3.9 + 1.5 + 2.1 + 1.4 + 22.5 = $68m.
- Less estimated $35m FY17 operating expenses (i estimate 2H will be ~$20m given end of year bonuses and additional overhead relative to 1HFY17)
- Gives estimated FY17 EBIT of $33m .
That estimated ~$33m FY17 EBIT compares to today's pro forma 31 March EV of:
- $330m market cap
- Pro forma 31 March cash of $124m + $41m raised from debt - $44m estimated 4Q outflow + $32m HK settlement = $153m
- Pro forma debt of $80m at 31 Dec + $41m additional debt = $121m
- Equals estimated current net cash position of $32m
- Gives estimated EV of ~$300m
So, a finger-in-the-air estimate is that this business is presently trading on an FY17 EV/EBIT of (300/33) = 9.1x . That is probably slightly expensive for a business of this nature (i'd say 7-8x EBIT is 'about' right).
But, as mentioned, the FY17 profit doesn't really say much of importance. What matters is what's coming down the pike in FY18-19, all going well.
Expand
Whilst I agree that this win today does little for medium to long term valuation, it should have a significant impact on short term sentiment and valuation. They have just added 22.5M of their gross profit of 66M in the last week of the financial year, ie. an increase of 50% of where the market thought they would finish.
So I was a little surprised there wasn't more of a bump today. I took the opportunity for a top up. Let's see if the market agrees over the next couple of weeks.