Cobalt supply chain at risk of concentration disruption
However, the global supply chain of cobalt is fragile due to extreme concentration. On the one hand, more than half of the worldwide supply (126 000 tonnes) is mined in the Democratic Republic of Congo.
On the other hand, China produces almost half of the world’s refined cobalt.
According to the JRC report these risks will persist in the future, increasing in the short term but potentially decreasing between 2020 and 2030, when currently ongoing exploration projects could add new suppliers and diversify the market.
Rising prices may impact battery production
Cobalt prices have tripled between 2015 and 2018. A continued trend might seriously impact battery manufacturing, as cobalt accounts for a significant part of production costs.
Substituting cobalt with other metals is technically possible and could reduce demand from electric-vehicle manufacturing by almost 30%.
However, substitution will not be enough to resolve imbalance in the mid-to-long term.
https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/news/cobalt-potential-bottleneck-transition-electric-mobility