you said "...Struggling to find a better tier one bauxite prospect of this size anywhere else to be honest."
The reason you are struggling is because there isn't a better resource currently out there. From my research, this is the largest unallocated resource on the planet. There are other good deposits in production. There are actually other mediocre deposits in production. The Chinese are shutting down local bauxite mining due to poor grades and serious levels of contaminating minerals. That smelter demand has to be fed from somewhere and the Alumina/Aluminium world will be watching this with keen interest.
Given current supply/demand dynamics I don't think Canyon will last as an independent operator. The large companies, the likes of Chinalco, Rusal, Dubai Aluminium and Alcoa will be all over this. I expect an auction within 12 months. In the event that I am wrong, it appears Canyon will have a low capital intensity operation producing a premium product. Their stated ambition of getting to 200 Mt of very high grade and an initial production rate of 10Mt per year will give them approximately 53c per share post tax profit. Don't know what PE you would want to put on this given the rapidly growing resource but to me a PE of 10 is extremely conservative given the likelihood of VERY significant upgrades in resource. It is also highly likely IMO that the production rate will be revised upwards once first targets are hit. Given that their numbers are based on only 30% of targeted trend exploration to date, doubling or quadrupling the resource is a high probability.
Very high Aluminium content, low Silica. Can't ask for more from a bauxite resource. (Other than a heavy duty rail line and a deep water port )
And a challenge for you or anyone else...name a bauxite producer with better fundamentals and potential upside. Like you, I've also hunted and they all fall well short.
CAY Price at posting:
21.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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