Ultimately, in terms of economic fundamentals, what matters is Zn price circa 2020-25 (Ex off-takes negotiated prior to then with different prices)
But in a sense what matters more to current shareholders is the price of Zn now & next year. I say that because this is when the co will raise $ for mine development. A low Zn price (even the current Zn price) may prevent the mine from going ahead, limit access to debt finance or lock-in heavy dilution
The company needs to raise multiples of current market cap. Financiers will be reluctant to lend if Oposura seems to be a marginal/loss making venture, particularly if the global economy is in the midst of a down-turn and risk-off sentiment is prevailing
The company signalled its hope to raise 40% of capital via equity. Again, finding investors prepared to pump tens of million into the venture if commodity prices are languishing (or hovering at current value) will be a tough sell. They won’t be paying 19c p/s, that’s for sure
And that’s my point. Hypothetically, in the years ahead, the feverishly optimistic metal prices assumptions in the study may come to pass. Predicted revenue streams realised. But shareholders will still lose out unless Zn prices rise dramatically over coming months
AZS Price at posting:
19.0¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held