"Less chinese materials/product available to the ROW market will...

"Less chinese materials/product available to the ROW market will keep ROW prices higher and will give Lynas a bigger market to contract sales to.
China will supply"

Not quite the way I see it.

The only REEs that China will release to the world are those that have to be dug up / extracted to get at the NdPr.  The NdPr will move downstream, to metals, then magnets, then motors, then automobiles etc etc etc.  Then, maybe, it will be sent to ROW.  At that point, not really relevant to NdPr pricing. 

Chinese domestic demand is not going to benefit Lynas the way we want or they need, because China controls the price and they will supply only themselves, and increasingly just themselves. Going forward, they will buy concentrate from ROW; not metals, not Lynas products.  Lynas sales into China are temporary and only temporarily necessary; both are good things for shareholders. 

We want Lynas selling to ROW, to Japanese magnet-makers.  We need Japanese automakers going electric.

China exports of REE-enabled products?  That point in time, which is hard to foretell, would be accompanied by much-higher Chinese manufacturing.  Their ability to keep the market in balance would be diminished; speculative magnet metal price spikes could become a thing.

Increasing ROW sales of Chinese high-value-added products is certainly a thing to watch for any investor.  I'm into Byd in a big way and way up; excellent trading opps.

Bottom Line: ROW NdPr / NdFeB demand is required.  That means ex-China manufacturing.