It all comes back to China's 2010-2011 market genius in which...

It all comes back to China's 2010-2011 market genius in which they scared ROW designers and manufacturers away from REEs whilst exciting ROW geologists to find more.

At this point, the Chinese have strengthened their monopoly, secured higher prices, and obtained new resources at heart-breakingly low prices.

And that's just the short-term rewards.  Their REE downstream businesses now have a market that's wide open, a technology that everyone else is desperate to avoid, and stable pricing on long-term ROW REE resources that will enable them to preserve their own, an oft-stated goal of the Chinese Father of Rare Earths and the State itself.  All in all, I'm hard-pressed to think of a more effective and enriching bit of global manipulation.  

Unfortunately for Lynas and shareholders, this all means any ex-China demand growth will likely be both lethargic and largely rooted in low-content applications. 

BOTTOM LINE: Only a continued acceleration in EV adoption is likely to create the conditions LYC shareholders once thought inevitable.