I expect the severity of this 1HFY17 report to result in the...

I expect the severity of this 1HFY17 report to result in the stock falling back to the 40c range it was in late 2016, and potentially even lower. The magnitude of the PCP revenue fall (from $63m to $23m!), the order book shrinkage (from $46m to $26m over the last 6 months!), the $6m impairment charge, and the failure to affirm "EBITDA neutral" guidance provided at 2016 AGM would potentially be a negative surprise to anyone who isn't in tune with how stressed MCE's end customers (i.e. ship builders and floating rig operators) are - in short, they're at the depths of the most severe downturn in living memory, and many of those same end customers made matters worse for themselves by over-leveraging at the peak 2-3 years ago, so they have financial distress to add to their operating misery. Those who blindly chased the stock higher in the last few months, perhaps on the back of Forager increasing its stake, are probably going to regret having done that.

All that said, for me the story hasn't changed too much - the "what" with this business (eventual cyclical oil recovery) is highly likely in my mind, but the "when" has always been the hard part. The business will be ~$20m net cash by close of FY17 once the ~$10m overdue receivable converts to cash, so the operating business, which i think is capable of getting back to $12-15m EBITDA in a few years without enormous difficulty, is going for $35m even on today's $54m market cap (which i expect to get crunched once the market opens in half an hour).