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26/02/16
15:22
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Originally posted by travelightor
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Good observation. I did notice that in the outlook statement, BYI says that 2016 FY will be flat.
To be honest, I was expecting a much worse result than this one. I'm somewhat relieved to know that business has stabilised and not gone further south. Therefore, a flat result at this stage is not too bad.
I expect cash level to go back up towards $10 million by June 2016 and this means the Enterprise Value of this business is only $51 million.
In the past 10 years, from 2006 to 2015, BYI produced the following NPAT (in million $):
2006: 3.1
2007: 4.34
2008: 4.992
2009: 4.28
2010: 4.939
2011: 5.099
2012: 8.463
2013: 9.273
2014: 7.975
2015: 5.885
The average for the past 10 years is: $5.8346 million.
The median for the past 10 years is: $5.0455 million.
The lowest for the past 10 years is: $3.1 million.
In other words, the business has always been profitable every year for the past 10 years (including GFC in 2008). As a result of this, Total Equity has increased from $26.702 million in 2006 to $45.49 million in 2015.
In addition, the Chairman, the CEO and the rest of the board, hold about 26.2 million shares out of the total 61.3 million outstanding shares. In percentage, the level of board ownership is about 42.7%.
Not only that, at $1.00 / share, BYI is currently paying a 10% unfranked dividend.
Considering all of the above, I will continue to hold my shares and watch if management is able to put BYI on the growth path again.
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Sure, if they manage to maintain the current level of earnings (and perhaps turn around the digital business) then it could be an interesting yield proposition at its current price; I used to be a holder too and I still have it on my radar screen. I just found it a bit odd that they implied a sequential EPS drop in H2 for the second year in a row without providing any further colour. This seasonality wasn't there prior to 2015, was it?