Great conversation guys. I've been on holidays in Melbourne for a few days, good to come back to some insightful analysis.
Jimmy C you have summed it all up perfectly with these questions:
"- A company which is relatively cheap (can't argue that point - it is cheap on an absolute basis), with a questionable track record of delivering on its promises (i've read the management commentary going back 10 years, and there's been a lot of unfulfilled hopes along the way), that can maybe stand still in its highly competitive (yet growing) markets via constantly running on the R&D treadmill?; or
- A company which does have some form of competitive advantage and that is poised to make real inroads in highly competitive markets?"
I think it is safe to say that SDI is at an inflection point right now. A lot of time and money has gone into R&D over many years to prepare for life beyond amalgam products. Given the continued decline, it appears that time is now. A lower silver price makes the decline look acceptable on paper, but regardless it has happened quick over the past two or three years and appears to be accelerating.
So the question is can the new products which have been introduced support the current market cap and financials of SDI, or will they struggle as a minor player in an industry dominated by larger players?
That being said, SDI is extremely cheap by any conventional metric. There might still be a puff left in the cigar, keeping in line with the Buffett analogy, and you are getting a free shot at SDI successfully getting market penetration with their new products.
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