Thanks FireBull, that constant currency conversion is very helpful. Prima facie, a ~10% sales CAGR in Brazil looks good, but bear in mind:
- They need to be growing sales in Brazil at 6-7% just to keep pace with the local inflation rate there (which is currently running at ~10%, but which has averaged ~6-7% over the last decade);
- The dental consumables market (which to me is the logical benchmark against which SDI's sales growth should be judged) is surely growing well north of inflation - hard to track down exact figures on this point, but figure 17 in the following link estimates the 2008-2013 CAGR in Brazilian dental consumables/equipment to be a whopping 18.5% - http://www.s-ge.com/sites/default/files/private_files/BBK_Brazil_Medtech_Oct-14_2.pdf
And so then i end up back where i started: what am i really buying here? Is it:
- A company which is relatively cheap (can't argue that point - it is cheap on an absolute basis), with a questionable track record of delivering on its promises (i've read the management commentary going back 10 years, and there's been a lot of unfulfilled hopes along the way), that can maybe stand still in its highly competitive (yet growing) markets via constantly running on the R&D treadmill?; or
- A company which does have some form of competitive advantage and that is poised to make real inroads in highly competitive markets?
At this stage, i have to answer my own question with "i don't know," and so the only prudent thing for me to do is watch from the sidelines, because if the answer is the former then i can't justify buying something just because it's cheap. Obviously, the latter is a profoundly more interesting investment proposition. I'd rather wait for a bit more evidence to see how they're actually going against the big guys, who are in all the same markets SDI is in - my experience is typically that backing the 4th or 5th best company, even in attractive & growing markets, is not a winning strategy over the long run, and SDI are clearly coming from a very long way back against behemoths that are highly entrenched with wide competitive moats.
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