Yes Karl is a nice guy, and in my opinion black swans are always...

Yes Karl is a nice guy, and in my opinion black swans are always with us in one way or another either the market or management or the politicians can create one. However I feel that the situation at CDM is not a black swan because of a sudden unfavourable event here or there but general overall miss. The portfolio was open to attack without strong flanks, Karl had miss-read the leadup to the correction and there was a panic, and trust was lost.
The fund was caught with its pants down, wrong decisions were made you cannot justifier that on the basics of good guys network. Already on the 29/09 Cdm looked very problematic my portfolio journal of the 22/09 referred to a a weak chart macd and rsi looking bearish while on the 29/09 an entry regarding a double bottom at $1.205 today its at $0.865 market value. That's not a black swan event for the fund maybe for someone's portfolio! but simply poor management.