Your analysis makes sense to me. I do think that possibly your revenue forecasts are a bit low as last quarter their cash receipts were $14.25m, so if you multiply that by 4 you get $57m. I am not sure if there is much seasonality in the business, but I assume its not a major issue. So if we work on 7% EBITDA margin we get around $4m as the run rate and they have mentioned some new customer wins and the resigning of existing customers to the value of $11m. With this in mind revenue should continue to accelerate. Interesting the short term target of $80m and EBITDA of $10m, which indicates that they expect margins to increase to around 12.5%. This could be a good catalyst if they significantly beat the 7% indicated.
Catalysts include revenue growth, margin expansion, new customer wins and acquisitions especially if they get into the data centre space as indicated.
Its not without its risks being a roll up, but I personally really like the story and the massive opportunity they have to up sell and achieve cost synergies through customer acquisitions.
Here is a great article for anyone interested in an overview of 5GN
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