Agree. Oil has probably bottomed. Although I follow the Dalian iron ore futures closely and they have shown a very pronounced recovery, then greater decline pattern on the way down. You'd be a brave person to call the bottom on iron ore at the moment (stimulus won't ever fix the underlying dynamics of their economy). Iron ore is not oil and the geopolitical price pull/push factors are different for oil (except to say both commodities are victims of mal-investments in overcapacity due to cheap debt conditions in the world). So far there is not much evidence of the same recovery, then greater decline pattern in the WTI oil futures that you see in the iron ore futures, although it is worth bearing in mind that while oil production remains at record levels the risk of further slides in the oil price are possible. The recovery in the DLS share price and other energy stocks seems to indicate that this risk isn't imminent.
I guess I'm just annoyed at missing a re-entry at 91 cents which was my target. Not too worried though, a strong broader market correction might see this target breached. DLS does have a habit of showing over-weight weakness with declining broader non-energy market indices.
At least the small trade I got stuck with at $1.13 is looking more health in my portfolio now. Not a good way to build a portfolio I know, but I'm happy to hold a quality stock like DLS even at that price.
That is my philosophy for trading. Don't use stop losses. Don't enter a trade unless you are happy to hold for the long term at the price you enter. Don't weight the volume of your trade so that you lopside your portfolio if you get suck with the trade. Only sell at a loss if the fundamentals reasons for you having bought in the first place have truly changed forever.
Sorry just started rambling a bit.
Eshmun
DLS Price at posting:
$1.03 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
