Never trust anyone in business.If you are skeptical of...

Never trust anyone in business.

If you are skeptical of performance you should check performance. Earnings reports can be easily manipulated. But there is a way to determine real earnings: Changes in balance sheet values.

Current assets - total liabilities as a sure figure for liquidation value of a company as long term assets are often of questionable value or hard to value or need time to sell.As Troy does not have significant long term liabilities we can use current assets - current liabilities as a surrogate.

Here are the figures from mid 2017 (adjusted for the latest cr):
Current Assets - Current Liabilities
June 201727.134 - 70.124 = -43m
Dec 201727.373 - 70.873 = -43.5m
June 201820.529 - 44.573 = -24m
Dec 201833.213 - 47.287 - 2.4 (cr) = -16.5m

And thus here is the financial performance, changes in cash or debt reduction:
Improvement in balance sheet/working capital in calendar 2018: $27m
Improvement in first half: 19.5m
Improvement in second half: 7.5m

Not that far off from Samboys estimates, without the incident in October Troy would have made nearly 40m in  calendar 2018.
You can also see that in quarters with Smarts production the improvement in balance sheet was 9-10m per quarter. It was a 1-2m loss in the December quarter. Going forward it will be gains of 1 or 2m per quarter as long as Smarts is not producing and from second half of 2019 on we should be back to 9-10m per quarter. And then cashflow will not be needed for Investec debt repayments.

You can also see that the working capital deficit was very bad in the past, it is already reduced by 67% over the last 12 months so somewhat strange to get hysterical now.
Normally you would not invest in a company with a balance sheet as bad as Troy's in December 2017. Ever (my background is Japanese companies having more working capital and investments than market cap...). Yet this is a gold miner. A like a combined approach for gold miners. Take the balance sheet for a financial picture with excluding all mining assets and handle the mining assets ounces wise.

Troy's mining asset saw production of 33.2k ounces over the last 6 months until December 2018 out from reserves of 120k ounces. Production in the first half of calendar 2018 was 41.2k ounces. Calendar 2018 production was 74.4k ounces with a gold price received of 1267. That leaves you with ca. AISC $1000 and remaining reserves of 86800 ounces. At $1300 gold price remaining reserves of currently producing deposits should bring in something liek A$37m until mid 2020. Not enough to justify the current market cap but that is without taking into consideration Ohio Creek. And do not forget Troy has ca. A$30m in deferred tax assets not on the balance sheet. That will be put onto the balance sheet once OC reserves have been defined.

Financially the balance sheet remains to be crappy. Yet Troy's finances are like a submarine that was stuck 120m below sea level. Too late to freak out now that we have finally reached periscope depth again.