Ann: Half Year Accounts Appendix 4D , page-9

bottom line is u gotta look at EPS (earnings per share)

they said the earnings in the 2nd half will be similar/same as in the first half, so theyll make circa 25 cents per each share in earnings.

Question is: what PE multiple is the market going to assign it with???

next year in 2010 i guess theyll be able to sell more in the spot market and export volumes can increase too. Question is, what kind of spot prices are we gonna look at in 2010??

In 2009 theyll make 25cps EPS, next year the analyst forecasts are for circa 30cents per share

**** A company like this in this kind of environment would trade at anywhere between PE 5-8 at most id say

So lets say PE 7 on 25cents per share = 0.25*7= $1.75

Next year if they make 30cps*PE 7 = $2.10

So anywhere between 1.75 to 2.10 on a forward PE of 7

On a forward PE of 8: 0.25*8= $2.00 for /09 and 0.3*8= $2.40 for /10

So its very understandable why the price fell,,,, the analysts were expecting 48 cents per share for the full year, and now it looks like theyll only make half that .

The hedging and currency hedging losses didnt add any good

export income and export volumes should pick up tho and at least theyre getting rid of all the bad hedging!

Who knows whatll happen in next financial year.....all depends on coal price and the export market

with the hedgebook being sold down, they can only make more money in the future

Analyst forecast for 2010 is 33 cents.

So give it a PE of 7 and u get : 0.33*7 =$2.42 for next financial year 2009/10