It doesn't matter how much modelling / appraisal drilling, DSTs you do, there is risk in every development. From channeling of water flood between injector/producer pairs reducing recovery per well sometimes by an order of magnitude, mobile clays clogging permeability, fractures enhancing water coning etc. There is inherent risk, FAR won't get interest rates sub 10% IMO without the negotiating power of CNE and WPL with diversified income sources. No development is a slamdunk, there's risks as well as upside- lenders don't share the upside, but carry all the downside. IMO WPL will get better interest rates going it alone anyway...
It's significantly more than 10% of fields which fall short of ever producing their FID 1P, with majors / large companies it's hidden in the portfolio. On the other hand I've also seen fields produce above their 3P, occasionally significantly (e.g. 3 times FID 3P production I've seen once). The subsurface geology just ends up being more complicated and the dynamic behaviour more complex than half a dozen 8-12" holes spaced several many km apart will tell you...
Also please provide evidence that WPL doesn't have government approval...
