WPL 0.85% $22.81 woodside petroleum ltd

Ann: Half-Year 2018 Results and Briefing Pack, page-40

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  1. 531 Posts.
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    Compared to ORG: WPL has far better margins, downside protection in low parts of oil price cycle (don't need to CR fro wrong reasons) also WPL has a far better investment pipeline.

    Compared to BPT: Beach is actually been a pretty good performer, I wouldn't call them beaten up. BPT is more of a oil play while WPL is more of an LNG play, both have good margins but I wouldn't put them into the same boat, WPL's LNG gives WPL a huge downside protection in low oil price, but not quite the same upside in high oil price. That said, BPT is onshore, WPL offshore, so very different businesses, also very different sizes. I personally don't choose between them but own both. My holding in WPL is far bigger however, partially because it's a safer investment.

    WPL's project pipeline consists largely off Scarborough and Browse. Scarborough will be nearly another Pluto in value to WPL, I'd put it into the $15/share range once up, while Pluto train 1 I value around $20/share (depending on forex and POO assumptions). Browse represents back fill to NWS and huge amounts of condensate (which trades at a significant premium to oil), not enough details on exactly how to value this, it depends on refurbishment costs of NWS etc. but I see it being worth probably around $10/share once online (also depends how you current value NWS). Then WPL has had a few smaller projects (Wheatstone, SNE and Greater Enfield). Main thing which sets WPL aside from others on the ASX is that it's already executing it's project pipeline (Wheatstone has just come online) and it has the cash-flow to deliver it down to $30 oil without having to ask shareholders for money. That's probably a good decade worth of capital spending for WPL locked down irrespective of oil price and while maintaining dividends. Find another company with that?
 
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