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Nice work. Let me ask you, how much of GMX additional production...

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BobbyKennedy

5,669 Posts.

718

24/03/19

19:04

Post #: 37867393

Originally posted by sydneyguy ↑

looking at the announcement,

The following seeks to approximate / calculating what it means for forecasted future revenue and forecasted margin / profit 2019 to 2022.

Firstly the business was looking at the hoist model (table 1) , but it gave forecast on non-hoist model (table 2) and has subsequently given new guidance in this announcement.

Therefore, in calculating some approximate numbers.

One has to calculate first what are the changes resulting in moving from Table 1 to Table 2
(hoist model to non hoist models ) than expected since the plan was released in early 2018 but having been expected in since 2017

and then calculate second what are the changes from Table 2 (non-hoist Model) to new guidance just released to get a grip on what has actually changed in terms of potential future revenue and potential margin/profits from FY 2019-2022

In table below, there are two models forecasts

Table 1, the 5 year expected plan using hoists
Table 2, the 5 year plans no hoists

View attachment 1486927

First thing to note,

Gold production forecast for 2019 and 2020 on both models are the same, hoist , no hoist 250K(2019) and 240K (2020)

ASIC forecast for 2019 and 2020 on both models are the same, hoist, no hoist 920 (2019) and 930( 2020)

Therefore, abandoning the hoist model for 2019 and 2020 means both models will change the same following the new guidance

So the changes to forecast revenues and reductions in profits as a result of this announcement are simply the difference between Table 1 or 2 (they are the same for 2019 and 2020) and the new guidance and calculated below

Revenue reduced from expectations after this announcement for Gwalia by at least $23M using Gold price of 1840 AUD/ OZ in Fy 2019

Margin / profits contracted after this announcement for Gwalia by at least $11.875M following guidance that ASIC was now set to increase by $50 from the lowest costs range in FY 2019

Calculated as follows

Column 1 Column 2

1 FY

2 2019

3 Production

4 GWALIA

5 Old production At Midpoint

6 250000

7 FY new production guidance at Midpoint

8 237500

9 Difference

10 -12500

11 Current Gold Price / hedged gold price

12 1840

13 Reduction in forecast revenue with new guidance

14 -$ 23,000,000

15

16

17 costs

18

19 FY 2019 at the lowest forecast

20 930

21 FY new guidance

22 980

23 Difference in costs (increase)

24 -50

25 new Guidance

26 237500

27 Increase Decrease in Margins expected

28 -$ 11,875,000

Simberi 2019 guidance for 2019 was also changed. The net affects of upward revised production and lower guided ASIC for FY 2019 are

Simberi New guidance for FY 2019 will increase revenue expected by using the hedged price of Simberi production at 1750 AUD by 13.125M and that margin/ profit following the downgrade to costs will improve by 3.975M

These figures are calculated as follows

Column 1 Column 2

1 FY

2 2019

3 Production

4 SIMBERI

5 Old production At Midpoint

6 125000

7 FY new production guidance at Midpoint

8 132500

9 Difference

10 7500

11 Current Gold Price / hedged gold price

12 1750

13 Reduction in forecast revenue with new guidance

14 $ 13,125,000

15

16

17 costs

18

19 FY 2019 at the lowest forecast

20 1275

21 FY new guidance

22 1245

23 Difference in costs (increase)

24 30

25 new Guidance

26 132500

27 Increase Decrease in Margins expected

28 $ 3,975,000

Net affect of FY 2019 revenue and net reductions for Gwalia and Simberi

REvenue changes and Net margins hanges from forecast following these changes in guidance from the announcement

FY2019 revenue will be net $9.875M lower
Fy 2019 margin / profit will be at least $7.9M lower than expected from forecast

The changes are calculated as follows

Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4

1 FY

2 2019

3 2019

4 2019

5 Production

6 GWALIA

7 SIMBERI

8 totals

9 Old production At Midpoint

10 250000

11 125000

12

13 FY new production guidance at Midpoint

14 237500

15 132500

16

17 Difference

18 -12500

19 7500

20

21 Current Gold Price / hedged gold price

22 1840

23 1750

24

25 Reduction in forecast revenue with new guidance

26 -$ 23,000,000

27 $ 13,125,000

28 -$ 9,875,000

29

30

31

32

33 costs

34

35

36

37 FY 2019 at the lowest forecast

38 930

39 1275

40

41 FY new guidance

42 980

43 1245

44

45 Difference in costs (increase)

46 -50

47 30

48

49 new Guidance

50 237500

51 132500

52

53 Increase Decrease in Margins expected

54 -$ 11,875,000

55 $ 3,975,000

56 -$ 7,900,000

From the announcement it is also possible to calculate and approximate the further future reductions in revenue expected and reduction in margins/ profit from the Gwalia operations in the years 2020, 2021 and 2022

As stated above, there was no difference in expected production at Gwalia in the hoist no hoist models in FY 2020, therefore its a once step process to work out the expected changes to future revenue and margin./profit expectations following this announcement.

Revenue for FY 2020 at Gwalia using closing price of Gold at date of announcement $1840 AUD/ OZ is now potentially going to be at lease $55.2M lower that originally expected.

(note if you had higher AUD gold price in your model it would be even worse)

margin/ profit in FY 2020 at Gwalia could be potentially be lower than first expected if you use the current ASIC now guided VS the 2020 by $10.5M

These amounts are calculated as follows

Column 1 Column 2

1 FY

2 2020

3 Production

4

5 Old production At Midpoint

6 240000

7 FY new production guidance at Midpoint

8 210000

9 Difference

10 -30000

11 Current Gold Price / hedged gold price

12 1840

13 Reduction in forecast revenue with new guidance

14 -$55,200,000

15

16

17 costs

18

19 FY 2019 at the lowest forecast

20 930

21 FY new guidance

22 980

23 Difference in costs (increase)

24 -50

25 new Guidance

26 210000

27 Increase Decrease in Margins expected

28 -$10,500,000

Revised Revenue calculations 2021 and 2022 Gwalia.

There are major differences to the expected production at Gwalia in 2021 and 2022 using the hoist no hoist models
So to estimate what has happened to future revenue and margin/ profit at Gwalia following the announcement, models using the Hoist model had to adjust first to the forecasts using the no hoist model., and second once recalculated to the no hoist model the models had to be adjusted to the new guidance.
So first adjusting from hydraulic model to non hydraulic model saw a drop of 20000 (FY 2021 ) and 50000 (FY 2022) OZ from future expected production
Then following these lower figure forecast productions at Gwalia, the new guidance is for 230K production per year, representing an additional drop from the non hydraulic model of 30000 (FY 2021) and 10000 (FY 2022). So the total expected drop in forecast production from 2021 and 2022 moving from hydraulic to non hydraulic models and then referenced to the new guidance is 50000 and 60000 OZ
Therefore approximate estimates for drop in revenue at Gwalia in 2021 from expectations following the announcement is 92M
Approximate estimates for drop in margin/ profit from expectations is lower in 2022 by $110M

These figures are calculated as follows:

Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4 Column 5

1 FY 2021` 2022

2

3 production with hoists forecast Table 1 280000 290000

4 Move to

5 production without hoist forecast Table 2 260000 240000

6 production change difference moving from hoist to no hoists Oz diff -20000 -50000 Step 1

7 Move from no hoist Model (table 2) to new production guidance

8 production now guided 230000 230000

9 new guidance forecast without hoists 260000 240000

10 difference from new guidance with no hoists to new forecast -30000 -10000 Step 2

11

12 total change in production forecast moving to no hoist model and new guidance to model to new guidance to OZ diff -50000 -60000

13

14 Using Gold Price for illustration 1840 1840

15 Total revenue change moving from hoist to no hoist model VS new guidance -$92,000,000.00 -$ 110,400,000.00

Note uses the closing price of gold at time of announcement at 1840USD/ OZ
If the models being used by others had higher forecast AUD gold prices in 2021 and or 2022, the potential lowered revenue from what was expected would be worse.
EG if you had say $2000AUD / Oz in your model for 2021 and 2022, then your expectation would fall by and additional 8M and 9.6M respectively
Margin / Profit expectations changes 2021 and 2022 Gwalia following announcement.
There are major differences in ASIC forecast in the hydraulic and non hydraulic models
First step in seeing the changes to margins profit expectation in 2021 and 2022 is to calculate the difference in ASIC in each model.
Differences in ASIC forecast moving to the non hydraulic model are

FY 2020 720 to 920 and increase in ASIC of $200/Oz moving from hydraulic to non hydraulic models

FY 2021 650 – 880 and increase in ASIC of $230/Oz moving from hydraulic to non hydraulic models

So straight away, moving to the non hydraulic model saw expected margin/ profits shrink by -$46M AUD in 2021 and 52.9M in 2022 to what was expected

If you then look at the current guided ASIC /OZ 980AUD/OZ and compare that to the non hydraulic model, you see a further potential contraction in margin / profits per ounce of $60 (2021) and $100 /OZ increase in 2022.
Using the current known figures after moving from the original costs model and todays ASIC guidance of 980 , margin following this announcement could potentially contract vs forecast based on original plan at Gwalia by $58.8M (2021) and $75.9M (2022)
The above are calculated as follows:
View attachment 1486937

Conclusion
Falls in revenue changing from Hydraulic Model ot non Hydraulic Model and then to new forecast from guidance total approximately $267M AUD FY 2019-2022
Potential Reductions in margin/profit now expected / forecast based on new guidance total approx. $154M AUD FY 2019-2022
The above are calculated as follows:
View attachment 1486931

These are large $ changes imo to what was expected and built into models from the original Gwalia Extraction Plan in February 2018
If gold price for any of the futures years used higher than the flat closing price last Friday of 1840 AUD per ounce used in the above , the change to expectations for revenue would be an even larger drop.

Expand

Nice work.

Let me ask you, how much of GMX additional production and earnings were baked into the price before it fell? IMO not much.

So while your numbers show a significant drop in margins from the hydraulic scenario to non-hydraulic, they hardly represent an end of the world scenario when compared to today’s metrics.

As Bob himself said, there’s a lot of headroom in both his production and grade estimates so IMO when you consider the macro/gold outlook, rising output relative to this year, and the likely upside in prod and grades (therefore ozs), this massive selldown has been overdone. Sure, the huge upside from GMX has been drastically cutback and the ventilation constraints may hamper production temporarily, but FY21+ is still going to produce numbers that a lot of miners would envy. There’s growth here still, albeit not as much, but the future is still bright and hugely profitable.

SBM Price at posting: $3.29 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held

0 Great analysis

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