I think a 50% discount on market value that has no way of being feasibly calculated based on known facts is completely fair. You can make up any production and mining costs you like to justify this value but without forward guidance on costs or a feasibilty study to support a forward mine plan that's all you've got, a made up number. I'm just discounting that number by 50%, if you were really cautious you could discount it by 100%.
Have a read of
@jakethelad 's post, mines start creaking and groaning at these depths. My father when we lived in South Africa went down one of those very deep mines and reported the same thing. It must be pretty unnerving working at those depths. In the South African mine my father visited the stope heights were very small, typical of the WITs style of gold mineralisation and the mine used sawn tree rounds placed vertically to support the stopes. My father said some of these tree rounds looked to be splittering under the huge compressive forces that develop in these deep mines.
I don't know what Gwalia is using for paste fill but if they are using a cement plus mine waste/sand mix that comes from the surface you can imagine that at those depths there will be added costs of getting the paste fill down the mine plus all the handling costs. The same truck that brings ore and waste to the surface can bring the paste fill material down the mine I suppose but there are lots of double handling, timing, and scheduling issues involved with this type of mining method. Safety will need to become a major priority because apart from potential loss of life a serious mine incident could be the cause for the mine to be shut. I know it sounds alarmist but I think jakethelad has a point. How would shareholders react if they woke up one morning to bad news along these lines? You need to start factoring in these risks or alternatively the rising costs of mitigating such risks. I known its hard for investors that are invested here already to accept some of these arguements but they are valid IMO. Each investor/trader however forms their own view of value or technicals on a chart, that's what makes the share price right. Esh
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