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clock Created with Sketch. 22/03/19
23:09
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Originally posted by eshmun
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I made an estimate that the $A gold price will average $1,750/oz for the full 2019FY, beyond that my profit estimte for 2020FY is based on the gold price remaining constant and assumes profit from year to year between 2019 and 2020 also remains constant but I've risked that profit estimate by 21.6% due to the downgraded production guidance in 2020 and the fact no detail is provided for AISC around 2020 production plus the fact I can't find guidance for Simberi for 2020FY. Maybe someone can point me to where this is published and I can revise the estimate. I think these assumptions are fair considered the level of disclosure on guidance provided by the company today. Beyond 2020 my valuation is independent of the gold price because all I have done is added my profit estimates for the 2019 and 2020 financial years and the company's current cash and subtracted it from the current MC to isolate the value of the company which is based on production beyond 2020. I've then risked that value by 50% which I think is fair unless you can tell me what "optimisation of the continued trucking option" really means. They give an indication of production guidance beyond 2020 in todays announcement by give no estimate of costs, that's pretty cheeky consider they probably have a handle on those costs from the study recently completed. Risking the value by 50% under such circumstances is appropraite IMO. As mentioned if I was considering putting momey here I would risk this even further comsidering my bearish bias on markets and the likelyhood that asset bubbles will deflate within the next 2 or 3 years. Esh
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I know from your post and calculations your not dumb.So i know you see a problem with the world debt QE etc.. the gold standard has always been around and will come back wso i felt at $5 this was cheap so im very happy,the stock market price is just a disagreement of price and im happy so hey what ya gona do traders can trade,i trade too but i put real money in places i feel comfortable
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