NOTE - COST for SEmberi are Guided lower and production guided...

NOTE - COST for SEmberi are Guided lower and production guided Higher.

Including myself, even all media reports of rising costs at both mines is incorrect

Simberi FY19 Guidance Due to continued outperformance at Simberi, guidance for FY19 has been increased to between 130,000 to 135,000 ounces (previously 120,000 to 130,000 ounces) at AISC of between A$1,245 to A$1,300 per ounce (previously A$1,275 to A$1,375 per ounce). Further details will be provided in the Q4 June FY19 quarterly report.


That said, the model proposed and taken imo by most was for the hoist model, Table 1, (below) it had higher production from 2021 and 2022 with substantially less AISC, the share price finally took off after this announcement and they provided their main preferred model graph of production and aisc profile for this model only. (Below)

The second model, without hoists, the truck model has less capital costs I agree but its revenue is substantially less and AISC are far higher than the hoist model.

The announcement today is more than just a FY 2019 guidance change, it goes out as far as 2022 and the revised details show enormous hits to future cashflows from production, and big hits to expected margin/ profits per ounce produced in 2020- 2022 based on this model...……...this year isn't so bad, but 2020-2022 see really big hits to revenue and profit expectations.

Ill post details later (its still being checked) which show the big changes to both forward revenue and margin/ profit expectations from 2019 to 2022 which were based on these models which were today substantially downgraded, it may better explain the fall