You're not far off. GMC were expecting to raise another $4m from...

You're not far off. GMC were expecting to raise another $4m from SI's by end of September, but $1m of this was received in July - so they had $5.3m at the end of June + $1m in July.

It's unclear whether or not they'll receive the final $3m, but on closer inspection, it's more likely than it may appear. Some would argue that the SI's would get better value buying on market, while driving up at the SP at the same time - in which case the company doesn't receive the funds it desperately needs - but that would be flawed logic.

$3m @ 1.5c/share = 200m shares (w/ 300m options @ 0.5c). There are only 52m shares on offer from 0.7-1.5c (including Chi-X). The next lowest offer is 2c. In fact, it would only take $645k to wipe out every offer up to 5c. Not to suggest that more sellers wouldn't appear in the process.

What is really going to make or break GMC is whether or not they can acquire an export licence and sufficient ore supply (that announcement the other day was rubbish). I'm not sure of the current margins, but in the 2015 scoping study, undertaken by the previous board, the margins were US$125/t for local ore and U$75/t for overseas ore. Early supply was to be made up of 75% Indonesian and 25% African ore, until GMC's own manganese mine, Timor Leste, became operation - a proposal that I believe has been shelved under current management.

Producing 31,640t FeMn alloy per annum from 2 operational smelters would require 65,847t of Mn ore (from the most recent study). If GMC can source that much supply, and assuming 75/25 local/overseas ore, an export permit could potentially provide A$9.25m annual free cash to go towards construction.

I can't see GMC meeting the suggested production startup date of early/mid 2018 with this strategy. If they are serious about the production timeline, then my guess is it hinges on the Asian Investor Promotional Roadshow that was to be undertaken this quarter - which likely also means giving away a % of the project.