Mate, I think you're being overly pessimistic regarding the...

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notlistening14

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08/03/17

13:43

Post #: 23185496
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Originally posted by tt2000 ↑

Had a big long weekend and a long day today, so figures below are 'from memory'.

GMC sought and received shareholder approval for 400m shares (which do not count to listing rule 17.1). They have used 70m/400m which was issued to Triple C's clients at 1.5c (1.22c effective price including the options). They are still able to issue 330m shares without triggering 17.1.

Listing rule 17.1 allows 15% of shares on offer without shareholder approval.
15% on 1800 is 270m. Above 270m and 17.1 is triggered.

So it would appear they wish to issue at least 600m (330+270) shares if 17.1 is to be triggered.

$10M USD (same amount as Pak) is $13M AUD/ 600m = 2.167c.

If these assumptions (some of which rely on the discussion someone here had with HB) are valid the effective issue price seems to be 2.16c or lower (depending on just how many shares are required to be issued).

Note this is just the shares that are issued.
They will very likely be accompanied with attaching 1 for 1 (or 1 for 2) in the money options.

Say 1 for 2 at $0.005 (same terms as the Triple C deal) and that's another 300m shares @0.005 = $1.5M AUD
So $14.5/ 900 = $0.016 (best case).

The clue for me though is that the issue to Triple C's clients at $0.015 with the 1 for 2 attaching options at $0.005 was as GMC state "Following the recent securing of a potential cornerstone investor (see ASX release 5 August 2016), the Company has received significant interest from a number of strategic investors."

So if at the time of having a secured CI in Pak the best they could raise at was an effective price of $0.0122 (at a time where the price of manganese was high), then it logically follows that at a time in which there is no CI, the effective price would be lower than this.

Be very amazed at any share price above $0.01 to be honest....esp with all this talk of dilution.

As previously mentioned, be interested to see exactly what these funds are used for and what management's drawdown for their salary is versus what they achieve.

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Mate, I think you're being overly pessimistic regarding the potential SP. You've failed to account for the change in macro factors - I.e the significantly higher Manganese price.

Fundamentals are significantly better than when PM was first secured or the raise to triple C done.

Two more days until all is revealed?

GMC Price at posting: 4.2¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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Mate, I think you're being overly pessimistic regarding the...

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